Home Talk about my little insight into medium and long term trend trading.

# Talk about my little insight into medium and long term trend trading.

Although the title forex rebate club called medium cashbackforexexness long term cashbackforexbroker trad forexrebateclubg, but I think that any cycle is a trend of small cycle trend is difficult to do because it is too easy to be disturbed such as non-farm payroll, in the daily chart may be just a burr in the 5-minute chart, may be a skyrocketing earthquake plunge to touch the top in line with the normal human psychological model, that is, smart people buy bargains of self-satisfaction trend trading theory is easy to understand. But in practice there are many problems, and the normal human psychological model to form a conflict: 1, after the right side of the entry, because the price has been running along the trend of a period, will immediately face a pullback inexperienced people will be alarmed at this point, hurried stop loss, and then watch the price of the original trend of running wildly away from this is "two-sided slapped" this This situation occurs several times, he will give up the trend of trading, and turn to the bottom and touch the top of this is the normal human psychological development mode a little bit more experienced people, at this time will think of "carry", as long as through the darkness before the dawn, the light will be ahead but if it happens that the retracement becomes a reversal, when awakened, the floating loss is too big, can cashback forex afford to give up Stop loss, and can not find other solutions, hesitation, trend trading has become a "dead carry to the end" 2, carry through the beginning of the dark retracement period, the price of the original trend smoothly forward, how to exit the field and become a problem some people will set a fixed take profit, 100 points, 200 points, and so on, if the smooth take profit, naturally all happy Then look at the back of the wild 500 points self-congratulation: "after all, have got 100 (200) points, not?" If there is no smooth take profit, to 99 points, pullback, carry carry, reversal, see 99 points profit into loss, mood from heaven into hell, later may face out of control someone does not set a fixed take profit, bent on the highest (low) point out of the field, will unwittingly fall into the bottom touch the top of the thinking, not to copy the top (bottom), will also face a floating profit into a floating loss of the dilemma trend trading, at this stage of my The understanding, should be a kind of fool trading, that is, as the saying goes, "look at the mountain is the mountain, look at the water is the water" Imagine, in our daily lives we see a mountain, will not go to suspect that their eyes are wrong? Do you want to analyze what conditions are mountains and what conditions are water? Under normal circumstances should not unless it is in the desert, or an extreme environment such as an alien planet to judge the trend is also this simple so the key to the problem is not how to judge the trend, but how to operate after judging the trend of the usual practice is to judge the major trend, and then wait for the small trend retracement momentum will be exhausted, according to the major trend entry Has anyone ever thought that the essence of this practice or "bottoming out Because after the formation of the trend to enter, usually the cost will be relatively high, which is in conflict with the psychological model of the normal people I mentioned earlier (smart people buy cheap) trend trading, originally only need to judge the trend and according to the above practice, in fact, is to judge the top and bottom of the small trend, which is a highly complex project, involving many factors of technical and fundamental this and my understanding of the foolish trading If you are willing to be a happy fool, please continue to see the real trend trading, no analysis, no prediction, only follow the trend upward, in place to do more trend downward, in place to do short entry after the trend reversal how? In place to follow the trend is like a path in the fog, may be ten meters away can not see clearly that what does it matter? You just need to be able to see the road clearly under your feet on the line as long as the feet on the ground, step by step forward, you can certainly reach the destination worry about the entry after the retracement? If you really believe in trends, you will not have such worries just open a daily chart above the level, which a trend will not come out of hundreds or thousands of points or thousands of points? Compared with the real trend, a few dozen points retracement, worth worrying about? Worried that the retracement has turned into a reversal? The real trend trading, no analysis, no prediction, only follow "follow" is unconditional, and you have no single hand, or single win or loss, there is no relationship worry about holding a single? This is indeed a big problem the following statement may be somewhat deviant if, due to a certain condition and enter the field; then, only when the opposite conditions, to exit; otherwise, it has been holding positions into and out of the field, essentially the same thing, but in the opposite direction If you can not figure this out, to hold the single, it becomes a thing to be desired but unattainable think through, there is no need to consider stop-loss or stop-win Because stop-loss or stop-win, but in the hands of the single out of the above is the concept, the specific operation, I recommend using the average, which is the most orthodox trend indicators, enough to use, there is no need to go around to find the holy grail operating philosophy: 1, heavy potential not price ignore the price fluctuations, focus on the development and evolution of potential many people will not distinguish between price fluctuations and the evolution of potential, the heart wants to follow the big potential, but often by Small cycle of price fluctuations hit out there is a simple way to arbitrarily open a cycle of the chart, the vertical change (that is, the single K line itself changes) into price fluctuations, the horizontal change (that is, all K lines lined up into a graph) into the evolution of the potential ignore price fluctuations, that is, to ignore the single K line itself changes, focus on the horizontal evolution of the K line as to how to arrange according to the K line As for how to make a potential judgment, some people are naked K masters, to be honest, I think it is not very reliable, my advice is to use the average short-term averages in the long-term averages above, is the long potential; short-term averages in the long-term averages below, is the short potential averages can also be, but will suffer from oscillations, or eventually add other conditions to filter, not as simple and reliable as multiple averages above is the judgment of the potential, which is actually the simplest The real problem is to determine the trend after the operation of my approach is: after the trend change, the first time to enter, hold a position to the trend reversal (1) "after the trend change": the focus is on the "after", that is "witnessed" short-term averages above (below) the long-term averages, rather than based on technical or fundamental factors, the future short-term averages "may" be above (below) the long-term averages (2) "the first time to enter ": the focus is on the "first time", that is, see the short-term averages above (below) the long-term averages, "immediately" long (short), rather than waiting for a pullback to a better price (3) "Position to trend reversal": the focus is on the "trend reversal" for example, see the short-term averages above the long-term averages, do more, then only when the short-term averages go below the long-term averages (must be seen with their own eyes, can not be judged according to other conditions), more single only out of the market, and the single itself has no relationship to the win or loss 2, the overall view of the single time, can not have a bet on the idea that we want a long-term stable profit, not win a run according to the homeopathic strategy to do a single, be trapped is normal as long as the trend remains unchanged, firm position in the homeopathic entry premise, the overall risk of the account is very small 3, to remain unchanged in response to the uncertainty of the market, and the certainty of the operation The market uncertainty, everyone understands that since the market is uncertain, why operation to have certainty? The core of the homeopathic operation lies in the "follow the trend", which is what I call operational certainty as long as you always follow the current trend, you will never lose the future trend I gave an example earlier: the trend is like a path in the fog, may be ten meters away can not see clearly that what does it matter? You just need to be able to see the road under your feet on the line as long as the feet on the ground, step by step forward, you can certainly reach the destination 4, no stop-loss / stop-win stop-loss and stop-win, essentially in the forecast market stop loss 100 points, meaning that the price retracement 100 points, the trend reversed stop-win 100 points, meaning that the price of 100 points, the trend will end this thinking on the one hand is in the forecast market, on the other hand, the The focus is on the price, which is what I said earlier on the vertical changes on the chart both of these aspects are contrary to the homeopathic theory if the mind has been thinking about stop loss / stop win, basically it is difficult to hold the single homeopathic trading, the most difficult place is not to judge the trend, nor is it to enter the most difficult is the exit although for any transaction, the exit is very critical but for homeopathic trading, the entry is usually not to get a very Good price, if the exit and then do not do well, then a large possibility is to work without success, or even loss "hold a position until the trend reversal", it is easy to say, but how to determine the trend reversal? Many people will analyze the technical and fundamental factors in detail, unknowingly go into the future and predict the bottom and touch the top of the maze, but forget the essence of homeopathic trading - follow the trend into the field, is to follow the trend out of the field, the same is to follow the trend, but in the opposite direction when the trend is reversed, is the trend reversal or put another way: If you enter the field due to a certain condition, then this The conditions are reversed, is the conditions of the field things are so simple many people will take for granted that the homeopathic inside the "potential", refers to the future trend so they racked their brains to analyze the market, and strive to grasp the future trend, but forget that the cornerstone of the trend theory is the continuity of the trend of the future trend is a continuation of the trend from the present Therefore, the trend, in fact, is to follow the current trend as long as you always follow the current trend, you will never lose the future trend to judge the current trend, as long as the eyes look on the line and to judge the future trend? Oh (the following omitted no numbers) said in front of basically all the ideas, that is, "the road" the following is the method, that is, "art" 1, to determine the "operating cycle" away from the cycle to talk about trading Whether trend trading, or bottoming out the top, are inseparable from a specific cycle of different cycles on the chart, the trend may be completely opposite daily up like a rainbow, the weekly line may have fallen several, the monthly line may be the head and shoulders bottom, the annual line may be in the halfway cycle not too small although there are trends in small cycles, but too easily disturbed cycle is too large can not be like amateur sprinters to take Liu Xiang as a target For most people, 4 hours is a more appropriate operating cycle, the trend is more stable, every 4 hours to see the disk, it is also easier to determine the period of the main principle is to suit yourself if you are very busy at work, there is little time to see the disk during the day, then the daily line is the most appropriate every morning before work to see the disk on the line if it is full-time trading, 4 hours to the daily line, weekly are available The start-up phase with 4 hours, until the capital, experience accumulated to a certain extent, want to take it easy, you can change to a larger cycle 2, to determine the "capital management model" this is actually more complex, but I want to simplify for two aspects: the size of the principal, the size of the position (1) now the threshold of foreign exchange margin is very low, a few hundred dollars, or even a few dozen dollars can start trading. Even a few dozen dollars can start trading but how many people take so little money stable profit? Im afraid not higher than the chances of winning the lottery for homeopathic trading, there is basically no possibility of windfall profits, if the capital is too small, the profit is minimal, few people can persist I think, do homeopathic trading, can really ensure stable profit capital, at least $10,000 to start with$10,000, if the annual profit can reach 100%, basically equivalent to an ordinary white-collar annual income in the big city. At least can solve their own survival problems and for foreign exchange margin, as long as not overly greedy, a year of 100% profit, is not difficult to do (2) now the mainstream platform leverage are very high, the United States 50 times, the United Kingdom 100-400 times, which largely amplifies the greed of human nature, many people a few hundred dollars to dare to do a hand, deposit - "violent position -" and then deposit - "violent position, repeatedly defeated, repeatedly defeated. My advice is to use 1 times the actual leverage, that is, for every $1000 principal to do 0.01 hand, the principal to the net value of the calculation, remove the floating profit and loss 3, to determine the "trend judgment rules" although I have always said that the trend is very simple, with the eyes on the line but in the actual transaction, but can not do so, because it is impossible to determine Entry point, is bound to add other conditions, resulting in the complexity of the operation must have a clear and simple and feasible rules, as long as they meet this rule, on the order, do not need to consider other conditions rules must be reversible, that is, long and short rules are the same, only the opposite direction rules can not contain price factors, because price fluctuations do not necessarily lead to a change in the trend, and the trend does not change is Can not enter the rule itself must contain enough information to deduce the trend change the most classic rule is the crossover of averages, gold fork more, dead fork empty in the actual transaction, in addition to the operating cycle of the trend judgment rules, it is best to add a large cycle, which can filter out most of the oscillations simply put, is when the two cycles trend consistent before entering one thing to note, do not take the trend As a wife, determined after holding still, never give up should be the trend as a lover, after the old age should be promptly abandoned, for a new reason is that the trend is changing although I have always stressed the continuity of the trend, but then the strong trend also has the end of the time, the trend reversal, we must follow in time, do not recognize a direction not to turn back 4, to determine "whether to Hedging" after the entry of the homeopathic is very normal how to deal with this loss single? (1) conservative: after the trend reversal, the existing single, regardless of winnings or losses, all closed and then entered according to the new trend (2) risky: after the trend reversal, the existing single, only the winnings single closed, the loss single put in motion and then entered according to the new trend, and the original loss single to form a hedge against the above two methods, each with its own advantages and disadvantages, just remember that the benefits and risks into a positive My advice is "risky" because my previous suggested money management model is very conservative 1 times the actual leverage, in this case if the use of conservative closing methods, capital utilization will be very inefficient, and correspondingly very few opportunities to win if the use of high leverage in the money management model, then here we have to consider the conservative type to note The hedge should not be deliberate, do not consciously do hedging in order to stop losses or preserve profits, that is a dead end as explained above, hedging is the result of entry with the trend, not to prevent the expansion of losses, but because the trend reversed, we follow the rules of the single hedge formed after the hedge do not think about unlocking, that is a trap to hedge and unlock the thinking completely lost, as the usual single to Do, adhere to the established rules, the entry on the entry, the exit on the exit, as if the hedge does not exist as the hedge brings the effect of stop loss as a windfall on the 1, to determine the operating cycle of the principle is suitable for themselves, rather than suitable for the market set the operating cycle, if my work / life status has not changed significantly, do not easily change the cycle do not see which cycle has the market to do which cycle Originally good to do the daily, see the hourly chart on the market, a momentary itch, under a single, set, and then a whole day distracted, had to squeeze time to look at the plate, the normal work / life order is completely disrupted, the results are usually tragic 2, add oil tactics is a big taboo some people are too careful and cautious, do not dare to put a lot of money in the account, dozens or hundreds of dollars, but the time of trading, but bold, by greed Overwhelmed, a few hundred dollars will dare to do a hand, the result is a cycle between the violent position and the deposit, although each loss of money is not much, the accumulation of a considerable amount of money until the loss of savings almost, only to wake up, if the original principal put some more, a small position, has long won ah! A popular view is that if small capital can not win, large capital can not win this view has some truth, but only see one aspect of the problem another aspect of the problem is the impact of human psychological factors on the operation of the previous cited an example,$10,000 principal, earn 100% per year, equivalent to the annual income of an ordinary white-collar worker in a large city, at least to survive if it is a hundred dollars principal The same method of operation, make 100% per year, even a week of living expenses are not enough, not many people can stick to this time the dark side of human nature will begin to move, watching others a week to turn several times (mostly hearsay), think they are not dumber than others, why do you want to stick to the goal of 100% a year? So began to increase positions, began to bet on data, began to plunge and touch the top, the operation of this deformation 3, judging the trend, the biggest misunderstanding is that many people think is to judge the future trend carefully think about it will understand, so the "trend" and counter-trend plunge and touch the top, essentially the same plunge and touch the top of the people, is not intentionally with the trend The bottom of the top of the purpose is to follow the future trend to do trend trading, if also to judge the future trend, will in fact enter the bottom of the top of the wrong way 4, the weakness of the trend system is the consolidation, how to solve this difficult problem? My opinion is that there is no need to solve the problem with the simplest logic to think about this problem when the market goes unilateral, you use the trend system to make money if you solve the above problem, then in the market consolidation, you will also make money when the trend to make money, consolidation also make money this kind of thing may happen? Or can you think about it as a starting point for long-term stable profitability? Some people may think, the market goes unilateral, with the trend system; consolidation, bottoming out the top This is essentially the same thing as the previous idea to accurately determine the trend and consolidation, has gone beyond the scope of the current stage of human civilization, that is the domain of God So, the trend system, is to make money in the trend phase of the market consolidation, capital stagnation, or even regression, are very normal 5, all fluctuations are Look at the trend in front of the market into unilateral and consolidation, does not mean to analyze the market trend and consolidation, only in hindsight to see so, I think, "all fluctuations are seen as a trend" is very important operational thinking, although it seems a little off the beaten track if not all fluctuations are seen as a trend, you will have to Judgment, which fluctuations are trends, which fluctuations are consolidation, and then take the appropriate countermeasures which will be caught in the analysis of the market, and all fluctuations are seen as trends, looks a little silly, but in this way, the fog in front of you will be swept away, all operations are very clear, follow the trend on the line I then cited the example of the path in the fog, ten meters away can not see clearly, the path itself is also curved, and sometimes even backtracking, but the road underfoot is very clear, there are guardrails on both sides, very safe, as long as the path step by step forward, although it took a lot of time, but very smoothly reached the destination and some smart people like to take shortcuts, want to go through the fog, the result is either fall off a cliff, or eaten by fierce animals, or fall to the nose, the body is intact