th cashbackforexbroker reporter from two large domestic banks credit department halfway home, engaged forex rebate club the financial media industry, contacted the number of domestic cashbackforexexness foreign financial investment industry people at least 500, of which the market is also at least 100 people in the combat faction in this full of freshness and mystery of the exploration journey, I concluded a truth, that I concluded a truth that: but all the people who have made their mark in the financial investment world and achieved stable profits, without exception, have a character beyond the average person, in character with tenacity, easy-going, sincere, patient and many other good qualities AllanWu is such a person reporter and he has never met, nor any interest in the transaction, but every time I interview him or ask him for advice on the market outlook, even if it is midnight I believe his easy-going and sincere personality traits will benefit him a lot in the foreign exchange market. As a senior strategy analyst at SparkFX who has been working on Wall Street for five years and a North American forex veteran, Allan has many unique skills in mathematics and computer programming, which largely help him to capture a lot of opportunities in the forex market that are difficult to find for ordinary people. Before I came to the cashback forex.S. to study, I actually had many years of experience in futures trading in China. Foreign exchange, when personal foreign exchange margin trading has just begun to appear due to the advantages of foreign exchange 24-hour trading, concern about the countrys major economic indicators, these indicators are published at a fixed time, the information published relatively fair, I had in the country for the main dealer manipulation, know the importance of information asymmetry, and foreign exchange trading volume is too large, the dealer can only control the plate for a while rather than a world, since the retail investors and the dealer stand in the same I personally prefer technical analysis, foreign exchange intraday trading resistance and support levels relative to futures trading is quite accurate, very much to my liking may be less retail trading and good luck, I just started foreign exchange margin trading in a very short period of time to get a better return on my $ 5,000 account grew to $ 50,000 after 5 months so I I have been trading forex as a second career, while working and learning to trade but after 1 year, I encountered a trading bottleneck I think I am good at technical analysis, although still in a profitable state, but my account no longer big profit growth in 2003, coincidentally I met Mr. Zhuang Zhaoji, his company in Wall Street let me contact with real Wall Street traders and trading ideas, I began to learn from them Allan: We can use the relationship between the U.S. presidential term and the U.S. forexrebateclub index to analyze the market in November 2008. On November 10, 2008, I predicted the yearly rally high of the dollar index in the Hutchinson blog, and this is how I analyzed it: Lets take a look at the relationship between the U.S. presidential term and the dollar index We can find a little bit of a pattern in the chart below (Figure 1). We will compare the eight years of the Bush administration and the eight years of Reagans dollar index trend in 1987 after hitting 85.33 rebounded 212 points with 17 months, 1992 after hitting 77.99 rebounded 192 points also took 17 months, these occurred in the U.S. election year and the year of the old and new presidents history often repeats itself, this year is no exception. The U.S. index rebounded 190 points after hitting a low of 70.47 in March 2008, which took 12 months. Lets look at a longer cycle of the U.S. index chart (Figure 2) from the gold standard system to the second oil crisis after the U.S. implemented a policy of continuous interest rate hikes to make the U.S. index soar, causing inflation in the U.S. economy, from the Plaza Agreement in 1985 to the rise of high-tech technology, from the burst of the high-tech bubble in 2001 to The current financial crisis of the U.S. index has experienced a constant shift from bear market to bull market, 1971-1980, the U.S. index 9 years bear market, 1980-1985, the U.S. index 5 years bull market, 1985-1992, 7 years bear market, 1992- 2001, 9 years bull market, it is not difficult to find the pattern of these numbers, 5, 7, 9 these are the key time series of Ganns theory, that and so on, from 2002 to date the U.S. index bear market has experienced 7 years, has the inflection point of the dollar index already appeared? From the above analysis, the bottom of time from the U.S. index is not far away we will see reporters: So now what? Allan: At present we must look at the dollar from a different perspective, before the financial crisis, we look at the yen, that the yen has been relatively weak, one of the reasons, in addition to export intervention, or arbitrage plate trading market is profit-seeking, Zhang borrow money without interest, Li want four percent, we will borrow from Zhang, the yen is Now it is the turn of the U.S. dollar, the current market U.S. dollar 3-month lending rate is lower than the yen, becoming the first choice for financing this kind of thing happened in 91-94, the result of what happened is that the yen strengthened the U.S. dollar 14%; if the borrowed money from the Zhang family, only to do business, it is no loss; the market borrowed the U.S. dollar, in order to throw the dollar, the United States printed a lot of money, the opportunity to eat their own fruit on this appears when the financial markets throw a hard When the financial market is throwing a borrowed currency, definitely not soft, not to mention this sell-off, not only to bring interest rate gains, there is a double gain in the exchange rate If you are borrowing money, will throw the dollar, buy what? There is no doubt that it is definitely high interest rates and high interest rate expectations of the currency, then it is the turn of the Australian dollar to win the lottery, it has these two endowments of the old U.S. in the past when the dollar fell, but also wriggle to say: we still adhere to the policy of a strong dollar this phrase is still in the ears, but the time is easy and the situation has changed, this time the old U.S. but no longer out to say this sentence, and even say "the dollar is strong in the interests of the American people This shows that the dollar has really fallen this time, is really fallen global economic development of the old model is: China and other developing countries manufacturing, the United States consumption, therefore, the dollar is strong, in line with the interests of the United States, the dollar the stronger, the cheaper things bought from abroad but the economic crisis has changed this model United States, accounting for 20% of world consumption engine has been extinguished I think the future new model will be: China and other developing countries are no longer export-led, the United States can not just import, he also wants to export, in this development model, the dollar is weak, conducive to the current exports and thus boost the economy, the original dude, now the old clothes rags The world has changed, of course, if the U.S. economy develops well in the future, it is still possible to return to the original, but for now it is very difficult if so, countries have dollar reserves of the central banks are most anxious, the dollar depreciates, which means that reserves shrink This anxiety often translates into practical actions, such as asset restructuring, buying other currencies, or balancing a basket of currencies in the past, the United States is a consumer country, before the crisis, the American people The savings rate was zero, and all the money earned was spent and borrowed, so it was a very good life, so the stronger the dollar exchange rate, the better, so that imported food, dog food, and even underwear are cheaper in the end, and now, high unemployment, high savings rate, consumption is not possible, the production of things to be sold outside, if the dollar is strong again, it will have indigestion Obama said: the problem of unemployment in the United States may last a year, so now the old U.S. The US is not mentioning "dollar strength" anymore. Look at the ISM index of the US manufacturing sector, which has been above 50 in recent months, indicating that the machine starts are high and the purchase of raw materials is strong, but if sales are poor, this apparent false prosperity is only an increase in inventory Reporters: As the currency of the dollar, how do you see the current situation and prospects of the euro? Allan: the euros current relative strength, I think more can be interpreted as the central banks to the dollar asset replacement, this thinking is also evident in the gold rally 09 market forecast for the U.S. GDP is -2.6%, while the forecast for the eurozone is -4%; 08 year unemployment rate in the eurozone is 7.56%, while the United States is only 5.8%; and then look forward, the Economic crisis before 05, 06, 07 years, the eurozone unemployment rate were 8.96, 8.34, 7.5, while the U.S. unemployment rate is only 5.1, 4.6, 4.6 economic conditions and scale and the degree of internal integration, the eurozone is less than the United States, but the recent euro "born like a summer flower" like a gorgeous rise, really surprised the market In addition to the central banks to increase holdings of euro assets, there is no other reason to believe that with the rise of the trade war between China and the United States, the dollars negative may be more clear market is currently a view that the United States is the least dependent on exports, so the trade war heats up, the United States is beneficial, I think: this is a view in the economic crisis needs to be changed after the United States is currently rising domestic savings rate, consumption is not strong, but the factory machines are roaring, full of productivity. But the factory machines roaring, full productivity, things can not sell, like eating, not digesting the solution only to the outward excretion on the other hand, the economies of countries, especially the real economy still have problems, the United States began in September last year, the subprime mortgage crisis deepened, Lehman fell, after two months, the European financial signs of being infected; likewise, on June 1 this year, announced that the United States on the verge of bankruptcy General is the U.S. real economy began to have problems time, after two months apart, also the same contagion to the United Kingdom Europe and Canada to the salvation of the real economy, the exchange rate is the key so that countries will be equally worried about the exchange rate now the dollar wishful thinking down, it seems that everyone has a little bit of displeasure, let go of everything aside, countries more or less have some dollar assets and reserves dollar plummeted, the U.S. exports are good, the debt is reduced, so Steal the joy, but other countries? The next G20 may have something to do, whether it is a joint statement, or intervention, perhaps an important point of concern in addition, or a key issue, October, in the end, the United States is not according to the plan to stop issuing debt, is the dollar to the fork in the road reporter: can you analyze the prospects of the dollar and non-US currencies? Confidence in the U.S. economy fell from 38.8 in August to 30.8 in September, the lowest since March 08, when it was 30.3. These data are well documented but, in retrospect, with an empirical approach to check the performance of the dollar since March last year, it can be found that since the data hit a low in March last year, the U.S. index began to see a low, and then shocked a sharp rebound therefore, need to Beware of such views when the market appears lopsided view, investors should pay attention to cover your pocket market to make money is a minority, with the majority of people in the same direction, sometimes may not go in the right way short term bearish dollar assets is not wrong, but the medium-term must be careful of the dollar waiting for an opportunity to rebound, personal views: the dollar continued to weaken in September, this impulse rebound is likely to occur in October from 1970 to 2009 of the thirty-nine years, there are 26 years, the dollar fell in September, so from the fortune, the dollar this month should wear red underwear, go to the evil and in addition, I observed the 20 years from 1989 to 2009, there are 13 years of October, the dollar rose, and only 7 years the dollar fell, so next month, the dollar off the odds of red underwear, relatively high The fundamentals of October, it seems, are also more in line with the time when the dollar stopped issuing bonds. As the market to eat the industrys combat faction, are generally very shy about talking about their own exclusive profit model since it is your newspaper interview, I think it is also worth pointing out that I recently specialized in the "baccarat" live trading model someone heard of baccarat, the first reaction The first reaction of some people when they hear that it is baccarat is "its not gambling" and they immediately back away from it, but if you understand the core concept and risk level, it can become the "Holy Grail" that traders crave. A good trading system is limited by human weaknesses, trading time and many other factors, while program trading and intelligent trading can circumvent the shortcomings of human trading. He has used his 20-year streak of success to prove that not paying attention to fundamentals, but using statistics and computer programs to capture a large number of short term trades can indeed be successful. He has used his 20-year streak of success to prove that not paying attention to fundamentals, but using statistics and computer programs to capture a large number of short term trades can indeed be very successful. I studied computer science in the U.S., so I started writing various programs to trade in the real world of forex. I used it on forex, tested the euro-dollar data from 79 to recently, and actually found that this model has a strong profitability, but of course at the same time the risk is also very large, I spent 3 months to completely "transform" it, and constantly modify the perfect parameters, without reducing its profitability, as much as possible Reduce the risk level in March this year, this model began to trade real, so far, a $ 3,000 account has increased in value 1.5 times my feeling is: the current foreign exchange margin trading retail investors, sometimes really need to use some "alternative" thinking to trade
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