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Foreign exchange market black swan event

First of all, what is the cashback forex swan forexrebateclub black swan event (Blackswanevent), refers to the very unpredictable, forex rebate club unusual events, usually cause the market cha cashbackforexexness of negative reactions or even overturn the beliefs that people are accustomed to believe, the optimistic view of the event, may be wrong, and we have never thought about it is wrong caused by the consequences, we expect the The name of the Black Swan is so easy: a complete reversal of the usual mode of thinking before the discovery of Australia, before the 17th century, Europeans believe that swans are white, so Europeans have never seen a black swan, all swans are white has become a fact that no one doubts, until people found in Australia black swans, Europeans ideas are therefore one hundred and eighty degrees flip, the black swan also This flip can cause a very violent psychological shock, because all swans are white tens of thousands of white swans testify, but to disprove it, only one black swan is enough Black Swan event characteristics:The logic of the black swan is: what you do not know is more meaningful than what you know In the process of human social development, the history of our and society has a significant impact, usually are not something we know or can foresee the stock market will suddenly collapse, the U.S. real estate bubble will trigger who did not anticipate the subprime mortgage crisis, a sudden snowstorm will make half of China into a state of paralysis, bringing hundreds of billions of dollars in losses…… how many of these things are happening according to plan? Generally speaking, the black swan event is to meet the following three characteristics of the event: first, it has an unexpected nature second, it has a significant impact third, although it has an unexpected nature, but human nature prompted us to make up reasons for its occurrence after the fact, and more or less think it is explainable and predictable how to deal with the black swan: face up to the objective existence of the black swan event, ready to deal with the policy, in the black swan event The core is to do a good job of ex-ante prevention and ex-post management ex-ante prevention: First, invest in familiar areas because the investment outlook is full of uncertainty, entering unfamiliar areas will further magnify the uncontrollable factors in investment, investors should not easily involved in the second, diversify the subject of investment to reduce the overall Risk diversification into different asset classes can have the effect of losing money, which means avoiding betting all the chips on a single asset Third, control exposure through risk budgeting Investors can use the stress testing methods commonly used internationally to monitor the portfolios risk exposure in extreme market conditions and adjust it in time to reduce unexpected losses ex-post ) management: First, quick judgment after the occurrence of a black swan event, investors should first determine the extent of the impact of this event on the investment and the impact time, according to the results of the judgment to decide how to deal with the transient impact, may be calm and collected, quietly watching the market rebound; and for the persistent impact, we must promptly cut positions to avoid greater losses Second, decisive implementation of the Western proverb do not cry for spilled milk, in After the black swan event, self-loathing and indecision often incur greater losses to 2013 bond investment, for example, if you can decisively cut positions in June when the money shortage, but also lock 2.15% of the gains, and if you delay until the end of December, the year will lose 2.10% Third, timely reflection on the experience of the black swan event investors need to reflect on themselves, timely summary of successes and failures, so as to improve the ability to resist The existence of the Black Swan confirms the limitations of human knowledge, our knowledge of the capital market is also limited, there are some things beyond our expectations is very natural in the investment, I hope that investors can do a good job to deal with the Black Swan event before the prevention and management of the aftermath, the swan flew to, but also the change can not be surprised in recent years there are several Black Swan event, which triggered the market turbulence twice, respectively The cashbackforexbroker franc event in 2015 and the British withdrawal from the European Union in 2016 January 15, 2015 Swiss franc black swan event January 15, 2015, the Swiss central bank unexpectedly announced an interest rate cut and abandoned the euro to Swiss franc 1.20 exchange rate floor that has been maintained since September 2011, so that the Swiss franc and the euro decoupling Swiss central bank cut the call deposit rate to - 0.75%, moving the target range for the three-month Swiss franc Libor rate further down to -1.25% to -0.25% Subsequently, the market experienced violent volatility, with the euro plunging 21.48% against the Swiss franc to 0.9427, a record low, and the dollar plunging 27.1% against the Swiss franc to a three-year low of 0.7426 Swiss and European stock markets plunged, leading to the markets biggest shock since the 1970s The biggest shock Swiss franc against 16 major currencies rose by more than 20%, Brent crude oil fell to below $ 48 per barrel gold prices gradually higher to $ 1261 / ounce, silver and other precious metals across the board red the direct result of this Black Swan event is the huge volatility caused by the lack of market liquidity, resulting in many foreign exchange platform losses British Ivory platform directly bankruptcy, the U.S. FOREX loss The black swan event, the Swiss central banks official explanation is that the Swiss franc is no longer extremely overvalued, as well as the Swiss economy has the ability to cope with the new situation, so the abolition of the exchange rate floor Swiss central bank believes that the implementation and As early as 2011, the global economy had not yet emerged from the financial crisis, while the European and U.S. debt crises were heating up, and market risk aversion had risen sharply. The Swiss central bank tied the Swiss franc to the euro, keeping the exchange rate at no less than 1.20, and the negative impact of the appreciation of the Swiss franc was mitigated by the central banks purchase of the euro, but as the pressure on the appreciation of the Swiss franc continued to grow, the Swiss central bank continued to buy euros over the years in order to maintain the exchange rate floor, and the proportion of euros in Switzerlands foreign exchange reserves continued to rise, and in 2015 the Swiss central bank already held a total of 495 billion Swiss francs worth of euro foreign exchange reserves, equivalent to Switzerlands GDP. Euro foreign exchange reserves, equivalent to 80% of Switzerlands GDP As the European Central Bank released the signal of QE, loose monetary policy is bound to bring the continued weakness of the euro, the Swiss central bank in the face of enormous pressure, and finally chose to cancel the exchange rate floor market reacted strongly to this unexpected move of the Swiss central bank, resulting in a significant appreciation of the Swiss franc after decoupling from the euro, which triggered a plunge in the exchange rate of the euro against the Swiss franc  June 24, 2016 British withdrawal from the European Union black swan event June 24, 2016, the United Kingdom through a referendum, announced the withdrawal from the European Union previous public opinion polls and betting odds reflect the market forecast that the United Kingdom will eventually stay in the EU, so the pound in the referendum results before the announcement of the once rose until the results of the Sunderland vote unexpectedly showed that the withdrawal faction won big, the pound instantly fell 6% of the big negative line, and then continued Downward as a result of the referendum results unexpected, the global financial markets reacted quickly and dramatically pound against the dollar exchange rate flash crash, down more than 1,000 basis points, touching the lowest level since 1985, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced his resignation euro also fell sharply against the dollar, the British FTSE and the European STOXX600 index fell by more than 8% due to the news of Britains exit from the European Union led to market risk aversion Rising, investors turned to the dollar, the yen and other safe-haven currencies to avoid risk on the day, the yen rose sharply, gold surged more than 100 U.S. dollars

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